Sierra CIO Tells MarketWatch What May Happen When Fed Loosens Quantitative Tightening

"Here are 3 things investors need to know about how the Fed might roll back quantitative tightening"

The notion that the Federal Reserve will soon slow, or perhaps even end, its program of quantitative tightening is increasingly being talked about on Wall Street like a foregone conclusion.

But while investors wait to hear more on the subject from Fed Chair Jerome Powell during next week's post-meeting press conference, they could be forgiven for asking themselves some questions.

What might an imminent taper of the Fed's balance-sheet runoff look like? Why has it suddenly become so urgent? What might it mean for the six or so interest-rate cuts investors are expecting from the Fed this year, as well as for markets more broadly?

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The thoughts and opinions expressed in the article are solely those of the person speaking as of 1/24/2024, and not necessarily those of Sierra and are provided for informational purposes only. Any opinion or estimate contained in this article is made on a general basis and is not to be relied upon by the reader as advice. The reader must make his/her own assessment of the relevance, accuracy, and adequacy of the information contained in this article, and make such independent investigations as he/she may consider necessary or appropriate for the purpose of such assessment.

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In Wake of Nasdaq Losing Streak, Sierra CIO Tells MarketWatch Investors Should Be Patient

"The Nasdaq kicked off 2024 with its longest losing streak in over a year. This is what is driving it lower."

The highflying technology stocks that drove much of the U.S. stock market's advance in 2023 are struggling so far in 2024, with the Nasdaq capping off its longest losing streak since late 2022 on Thursday.

Meanwhile, health-care stocks, utilities and energy stocks, which all finished 2023 in the red, have taken the lead this week, according to FactSet data.

But portfolio managers and investment strategists who spoke with MarketWatch said investors should not be worried about the Magnificent Seven, or the information technology, consumer discretionary and communications services sectors more broadly. At least not yet.

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The thoughts and opinions expressed in the article are solely those of the person speaking as of 1/5/2024, and not necessarily those of Sierra and are provided for informational purposes only. Any opinion or estimate contained in this article is made on a general basis and is not to be relied upon by the reader as advice. The reader must make his/her own assessment of the relevance, accuracy, and adequacy of the information contained in this article, and make such independent investigations as he/she may consider necessary or appropriate for the purpose of such assessment.

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James St. Aubin Tells MarketWatch His Take on the "January Effect"

"So much for ‘the January effect’: Here are five things that could interrupt the U.S. stock-market rally in early 2024"

U.S. stocks capped off a wild 2023 with a two-month sprint that has carried the Dow to record highs and the S&P 500 index to within a whisker of a similar milestone.

But after such a powerful advance, some portfolio managers and strategists are concerned that the market could suffer its own post-New Year's Eve hangover once the calendar turns to January 2024.

Instead of providing a tailwind for the market, several who spoke with MarketWatch worried that the "January effect" might work in reverse as investors scramble to lock in gains after the S&P 500 rose 24% in 2023, according to FactSet data.

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The thoughts and opinions expressed in the article are solely those of the person speaking as of 12/31/2023, and not necessarily those of Sierra and are provided for informational purposes only. Any opinion or estimate contained in this article is made on a general basis and is not to be relied upon by the reader as advice. The reader must make his/her own assessment of the relevance, accuracy, and adequacy of the information contained in this article, and make such independent investigations as he/she may consider necessary or appropriate for the purpose of such assessment.

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“Corporate Debt Markets Face the Most Acute Threat This Year,” Says Sierra CIO to Wall Street Journal

"Five Investors on How to Navigate the Bond Market in 2024"

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A resilient U.S. economy and cooling inflation fueled an intense year-end bond rally. Now, some suspect investors are too sanguine about the months ahead.

The rally marked the latest in a series of swings that sent the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury, which falls when bond prices rise, leaping and diving throughout the past 12 months. Fears of a prolonged stretch of higher interest rates repeatedly drove the yield to decade-plus highs, only for stress on the banking system and a Federal Reserve pivot to drag it down again.

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The thoughts and opinions expressed in the article are solely those of the person speaking as of 12/1/2023, and not necessarily those of Sierra and are provided for informational purposes only. Any opinion or estimate contained in this article is made on a general basis and is not to be relied upon by the reader as advice. The reader must make his/her own assessment of the relevance, accuracy, and adequacy of the information contained in this article, and make such independent investigations as he/she may consider necessary or appropriate for the purpose of such assessment.

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James St. Aubin Shares Important Investing Lessons on Excess Returns Podcast

"100+ Great Investors Share Their Most Important Investing Lesson "

The hosts of Excess returns have now conducted over 100 interviews on their podcast. At the end of all of them, they have asked the same closing question:

Based on your experience in markets and your research, if you could teach one lesson to the average investor, what would it be?

In this episode, the hosts of Excess Returns bring all of those answers together into one episode and share the insights of all their guests, including Guy Spier, Rob Arnott, Michael Mauboussin, Steve Romick, Joel Tillinghast, Cem Karsan, Bob Ellott, Jerry Parker, Andy Constan and many more.

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The thoughts and opinions expressed in the segment are solely those of the person speaking as of 12/28/2023, and not necessarily those of Sierra and are provided for informational purposes only. Any opinion or estimate contained in this video is made on a general basis and is not to be relied upon by the listener as advice. The listener must make his/her own assessment of the relevance, accuracy, and adequacy of the information contained in this segment, and make such independent investigations as he/she may consider necessary or appropriate for the purpose of such assessment.

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