RESOURCES

Winning at the Horse Races

For most people the end of summer means one last dash to the beach, back-to-school shopping, and some final wagering at the horse track. At least this has been the case for me. The last bet on the last race at the Del Mar Racetrack in Southern California comes at Labor Day. Betting on a horse means putting money on a hopeful winner before the announcer shouts “go” and either picking up a gain or losing it all several minutes later.

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State of Confusion

Financial markets don’t know if they are coming or going, telegraphing that investors are in a state of confusion. The U.S. stock market is tapping out historic highs, but as we write this, the reality is that the S&P 500 is a scant 2% higher than levels established 9 months ago. Along the way to that meager gain, buy and hold investors endured an agonizing and unrelenting free-fall at the end of 2018 and a sharp 7% loss in value in May.

The Stealth Bull Market in Bonds of the Past Year

For many, summer means days at the beach and, ideally, nights at the ice cream parlor. Picking a flavor of ice cream is never an easy decision. The same can be said for bonds. Like ice cream, bonds come in 31 flavors (or so). U.S. government bonds are really different flavors of vanilla, from just plain vanilla to French to New York. Interest rates are the driver of the prices of government bonds; a rise in rates pressures prices down and vice-versa. A risk of default is virtually nil so credit risk does not influence the price.

A Tactical Strategy for Current Volatility

From basketball to tennis or chess to tic-tac-toe, winning a game involves strategic decisions, probability analysis and math. The best teams and players are not passive, generating the same moves over and over, but tactically adjusting to make the next best move. Investing is much the same.

True Diversification is a Process, Not a Set of Assumptions

A simple definition of investment diversification is conveyed in the overused statement, “don’t put all your eggs in one basket.” The basic buy-and-hold, set-it-and-forget-it style of investing is often premised in a 60% global stock and 40% bond allocation (known as “60/40”) and sold as enough diversification to handle whatever market turmoil might come your way over the long-term.

After Last Quarter's Bloodbath, We've Had a Nice Rally. Is it Time to Pop the Corks?

So far in 2019, and really since Christmas Eve, we have seen a nice risk-on rally. Equities (as measured by the S&P 500® Index) were up about 8% in the month of January despite the U.S. government shutdown and international turmoil. While it is nice to have a breather from the march downward, it may be too early to pop the champagne corks and celebrate for the rest of the year. 2019 has only just begun, and (stop me if you've heard this) investing in a marathon, not a sprint!

A Portfolio Manager's Resolution for Investors: Trailing Stops

A new year brings with it the elation of a renewed start. We proclaim resolutions about how we will make this year better than the one that just concluded. After the volatile close to 2018, investors should now be doing the same. Fortunately, there is the trailing-stop.

Observations and Perspectives: Some of These Things Are Not Like the Others

Since early July 2016, the yield on the 10-year Treasury has rocketed from 1.38% to nearly 3%. Investors in intermediate Treasuries have lost more than 7% over that period as rising interest rates have resulted in falling bond prices.

Observations and Perspectives: Show Me the Money

We are consistently hearing that bonds are making advisors and investors pull out their hair. Nearly three decades of generally falling interest rates has translated into a bull market for traditional bond strategies, but times have changed.

Observations and Perspectives: Trendless Volatility

The year 2017 went down in the record books as the calmest stock market in history. The worst decline from high to low (“drawdown”) was a scant 2.6% and the S&P 500 recorded just 8 swings of more than one percent, just about one every six weeks, all the while consistently moving to the upside.

Observations and Perspectives: Traditional Bonds = Risky Parachutes

During the short nine days of trading from late January to February 8, the S&P 500 fell like a skydiver leaping out of a plane: fast and down. In a classic flight-to-quality response, investors pulled their parachutes, socking billions into the largest ETFs tracking the widely-watched Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index (the “Barclays Aggregate”). This time, though, it didn’t work.

Observations and Perspectives: Take It One Curve at a Time

Right now I am continually inspired by the competing Olympians and I just came across an obscure and just plain crazy sport: “skeleton.” In it, thrill-seeking competitors plummet headfirst down a twisting, frozen track at speeds over 80 miles per hour.

A Fool's Errand - 1st Quarter 2018 Commentary

As Yogi Berra famously quipped, “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” Nowhere is this truer than in the stock and bond markets around the world. It is a fool’s errand to make bold market predictions, but here we are at the beginning of 2018 and, as usual, economists, market pundits and fortune tellers alike are offering their best guesses for the next 12 months.

Observations and Perspectives: Playing Whack-a-mole in Wacko Season

A widely followed bond guru recently declared that investment markets have entered “wacko season.” Some of his reasons include bitcoin mania and also European junk bonds that yield the same as U.S. Treasuries (which would you invest in)? We do not disagree and would add to his already long wacko and confusion list:

Observations and Perspectives: Passive ETF Investing & Sleepy Markets. Stay Alert!

“The reports of my death have been greatly exaggerated”, quipped Mark Twain after being told a newspaper had published his obituary when he had fallen ill. The death of active management has also been prematurely announced and is rooted in the herds of investors pouring money into passive ETF funds mimicking indexes.

Observations and Perspectives: Canaries in the Coal Mine: What to Watch as Stocks Continue to Make New Highs

Stocks continue to teeter at all-time highs and the out-sized profits enjoyed since November of last year are really a continuation of the bull market that turned 8 years old this past March. Low starting valuations, improved economic growth and employment, increased corporate earnings and low interest rates have driven the moves upward.

Observations and Perspectives: Look Out Above! Rates Are Going Up.

About fifty days into the new administration and the trend we have observed since July 2016 remains intact: interest rates are going up.

Observations and Perspectives: Is the Sugar High Wearing Off?

Anticipation of lower taxes and higher infrastructure spending initially pushed investor enthusiasm and stock prices higher for several weeks following the election of Donald Trump as the 45th President of the United States. At the same time, a sea of change from central bank dominated markets to a focus on fiscal policy sparked inflationary fears, a stronger dollar prompted a melt-up in interest rates. As the Dow inches toward the historic level of 20,000, the sharp runs in stocks have begun to consolidate while rates have retreated. The sugar high is wearing off.

Observations and Perspectives: Do You Smell That?

What’s that smell? No political jokes. No celebrity ones either. That smell you smell is the faint whiff of inflation seeping into the economy. It’s also one of the big reasons for the cruel October bond selloff.

Observations and Perspectives: Your Client Doesn't Care About Standard Deviation

All else equal, given the choice between a 10% gain or a 5% gain, most (all) investors prefer the 10%, right? A degree in math or a course in probability and statistics isn’t needed to figure that out.

Observations and Perspectives: Sell Everything? Even the Kids?

A very smart investor (more than one very smart investor, actually) is saying to sell everything. These “smart guys” are very likely smarter than me. They most certainly are wealthier than I am. Some may argue they are also better looking than me.

Observations and Perspectives: Right Back Where We Started From

In an emotional vote against crony capitalism, immigration fears and the widening gap between haves and have-nots, the UK voted on Thursday to leave the European Union, shocking pollsters and market makers the world over. The psychological damage on Friday was jarring: the British pound touched a 30-year low, European bank stocks plunged close to 20% and jittery investors rushed into gold and anything U.S., including bonds and the dollar (but not stocks or high yield bonds….yet).

Observations and Perspectives: Pass the Pepto-Bismol

As stocks reach record highs, it’s worth re-visiting the ride to get here. It’s not unusual to see pullbacks in stocks, but over the past 12 months, investors in U.S. stocks have suffered two 12+% drops in the S&P 500 and in the process made a full 2.85%. That includes dividends. As you likely recall, the U.S. market had the worst start ever to a calendar year in 2016. Happy New Year and please pass the Pepto-Bismol.

The Dove, the Fed and the Tanker

Since the Federal Reserve raised its borrowing rate by 25 basis points (bps) this past December, the U.S. dollar keeps dropping to lower and lower levels relative to other currencies. The tanking dollar is the exact opposite of the predictions of economists’ models. Here's what most economists say: if rates are higher and rising in the U.S. versus Japan, people want U.S. bonds, so they sell yen to buy dollars. This should push up the value of the dollar versus the yen. In fact, the opposite has occurred.

Observations and Perspectives: Is it Time to "Live Happily Ever After"?

Stocks have rallied back into the green for 2016, recovering completely from the January collapse. The market breadth is convincing. Last year, we highlighted that “risk-on” assets were in fact at risk. One reason we held this view was the serious lack of breadth in the broad stock market. While the FANGS (Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, Google and Starbucks) were dazzling in their meteoric returns, the average stock was in negative territory for 2015. In fact, over 400 of the stocks in the S&P 500 lost ground in 2015, a terribly low level of market breadth.

Observations and Perspectives: Are We Out of the Woods Yet?

We’ve had a year’s worth of trading moves already in 2016. Seven weeks into the trading year and global markets, from commodities to stocks, went on a tear to the downside. Most recently, many market benchmarks have reversed course, posting solid gains. The big question now is whether this newer move is sustainable. Are we out of the woods yet?

Markets in Focus: January 2016 - What the Heck?!

Equity markets around the world ended January down substantially, and the declines in the major U.S. stock indices, in the first week and as well as the first two weeks of the year, were the worst in over 100 years. (The month as a whole was the worst January since 2009.)

Observations and Perspectives: Global Confidence is Fragile

Kicking off the start of the second full week of trading for 2016 did little to calm investors. The year started in an ugly way when The People’s Bank of China depreciated the value of its currency, the renminbi, causing shares to tumble in Shanghai. The descent in Chinese stocks was so sharp that circuit breakers were triggered, halting trading. Just like when you are fighting with your spouse, or getting ready to hit the send button in an angry email, a short pause can often stop destruction.

Does Greece Need Adult Supervision?

Events on Saturday in Europe, regarding the "final" proposal by the ECB, IMF and Germany, roiled the global markets on Monday, June 29. The Greek leadership team and teh Eurogroup negotiating team have traded proposals for the past ten days. But the ECB and IMF negotiators finally set Saturday as the deadline for their final offer - and Greece whiffed.