Skip to main content
Contact Us


St. Aubin on Morningstar Markets Brief: “Tectonic shifts in forecasting Fed policy” (Article 3/31/2023)

March 31st, 2023

Even as the Fed looks to pause rate hikes, reasons for caution abound.

Tech stocks benefited as investors flooded into the beaten-up group, expecting it to benefit from a Fed pause and move to cut interest rates. Also, mega-cap techs are seen as having fortress-like balance sheets able to withstand a serious downturn.

But the first quarter was anything but an easy ride.

“It was a quarter that saw tectonic shifts in forecasting Fed policy,” says James St. Aubin, chief investment officer at Sierra Investment Management in Santa Monica, California, calling the first-quarter action a “roller-coaster ride” in which investor expectations around inflation and how the Fed would respond to it changed multiple times from start to finish.


The thoughts and opinions expressed in the article are solely those of the person speaking as of 3/31/2023. The discussion of individual companies should not be considered a recommendation of such companies by the Fund’s investment adviser. The viewer must make his/her own assessment of the relevance, accuracy, and adequacy of the information contained in this article, and make such independent investigations as he/she may consider necessary or appropriate for the purpose of such assessment.